6月份CPI涨幅同比由负转正 PPI同比下降3.6%

Group 1: CPI Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first rise this year [1][2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a 14-month high [1][2] - Food prices saw a slight narrowing in their decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2] Group 2: Food Prices Analysis - Beef prices ended a 28-month consecutive decline, increasing by 2.7%, while pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking the first decline after a period of increases [2] - Month-on-month, food prices decreased by 0.4%, which is less than the seasonal average decline of 0.5 percentage points [2] - Specific impacts on CPI included a 3.3% decrease in fresh fruit prices, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI decline, and a 2.9% decrease in egg prices, contributing about 0.02 percentage points [2] Group 3: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline rate widening by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][4] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, with the decline rate remaining consistent with the previous month [1][4] - Factors contributing to the PPI decline included seasonal price decreases in raw materials and increased green energy supply leading to lower energy prices [4] Group 4: Industrial Prices and Economic Factors - The year-on-year decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5%, reducing the downward pressure on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [3] - The increase in oil prices due to international supply risks and seasonal consumption recovery contributed to rising energy prices [3] - Service prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a slight month-on-month increase in rental prices due to seasonal demand [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PPI's year-on-year decline may be at its lowest for the year, with expectations for a gradual narrowing of the decline in the second half of the year [6] - The implementation of macroeconomic policies is expected to improve supply-demand relationships in certain industries, leading to price stabilization [5] - New economic drivers in high-tech sectors are contributing to price increases in advanced manufacturing and digital economy sectors [5]