市场风向转变！对冲日本大选风险升温 日元看跌期权交易量翻倍

Group 1 - Option traders are adjusting their positions on the Japanese yen, betting on depreciation against the US dollar due to political instability, trade tensions, and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - On July 11, the trading volume of bullish dollar/yen options exceeded that of bearish options by more than two times, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The current popular trading strategy includes buying knock-out call options, which are more cost-effective than standard call options, as they automatically expire if the exchange rate breaches specific levels [1] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding the election results are paving the way for further fiscal stimulus, which has led to an increase in Japanese long-term government bond yields [2] - There is a positive correlation between dollar/yen and the 30-year Japanese government bond yields, as noted by HSBC strategists [2] - Concerns over the lack of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations, combined with fiscal worries, are undermining market confidence in the yen [2]