新世纪期货：美联储9月降息预期下降 预计黄金维持高位震荡

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On July 14, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 778.16 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.64% [1] - The opening price for the day was 777.62 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 781.18 CNY and a low of 776.24 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic Factors - Trump's "big and beautiful" plan has passed, potentially exacerbating the U.S. debt issue and leading to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility, highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes [2] - In a global high-interest rate environment, gold's role as a zero-yield asset is diminishing, and its sensitivity to U.S. Treasury real interest rates is decreasing [2] - Geopolitical risks have slightly decreased, but Trump's tariff policies are intensifying global trade tensions, maintaining market demand for safe-haven assets, which is a significant factor in driving up gold prices [2] - There has been a notable increase in physical gold demand in China, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November last year, continuing for eight consecutive months [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - In the context of high interest rates and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being driven by central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [3] - The logic behind the current rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate and tariff policies acting as short-term disturbances; a more cautious interest rate policy is expected this year [3] - The evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate changes in market risk sentiment, with recent U.S. labor market data showing resilience, as non-farm employment exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [3] - Core PCE inflation data indicates resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing market expectations, while overall PCE inflation matched expectations at 2.3% [3] - The latest tariff measures by Trump have escalated the trade war, leading to a resurgence in market risk sentiment, which supports gold prices [3]