供需矛盾不尖锐 短期预计白糖期货维持震荡运行

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]