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食品通胀超预期施压 日本央行拟上调关键价格预测
智通财经网·2025-07-14 06:36

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan may consider raising at least one inflation forecast in its upcoming policy meeting due to unexpected increases in rice and food prices [1][2] - The central bank is likely to adjust its key price forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% due to stronger food inflation and rising oil prices [1][2] - The yen briefly strengthened against the dollar following the news, while Japanese government bond futures fell [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 31, amid uncertainties from ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and the upcoming Senate elections [2] - Living costs and rice prices have become critical issues ahead of the elections, with rice prices doubling compared to the previous year, marking the largest increase since 1971 [2] - The central bank believes there is no need for significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, maintaining that price trends will align with its sustainable inflation target in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's forecasts for core CPI and core-core CPI for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are 2.2%, 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.3%, 1.8%, 2% respectively [4] - Officials acknowledge high uncertainty and plan to monitor the impact of US tariffs on upcoming data to determine the timing of future rate hikes [4] - The central bank's president, Ueda Kazuo, indicated that the effects of tariffs have not yet appeared in hard data, while inflation rates remain elevated, reaching a two-year high in May [5]