Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that since the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the Japanese yen has appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar but weakened against other G10 currencies, with a declining trend in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Yen Movements - Factors driving the unwinding of long yen positions include improved risk sentiment from rising global stock markets, cooling expectations for Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, domestic political uncertainties in Japan raising fiscal concerns, weakened expectations for U.S.-Japan currency agreements, and stagnation in Japan's "de-dollarization" process [3]. - Following President Trump's statement on April 22 regarding not planning to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and softening his stance on China, global stock markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 and TOPIX indices returning to pre-tariff levels. The correlation between stock market rises and yen depreciation was noted from late April to late June [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Projections - Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for USD/JPY at 140 by the end of 2025 and 139 by mid-2026, emphasizing that any rebound in the yen may be more a result of a weakening dollar rather than a strengthening yen [5]. - The direct impact of the 25% reciprocal tariffs on the Japanese economy, central bank monetary policy, and yen exchange rate is considered limited, but there may be indirect effects through stock market volatility. If tariffs lead to a decline in Japanese corporate earnings (with an estimated 9% reduction in earnings per share for the TOPIX index), a stock market downturn could temporarily increase demand for the yen as a safe haven. However, the market generally expects the final tariff rate to be lower than 25%, suggesting a milder actual impact [5].
小摩：日元弱势格局料持续 年底美元兑日元目标维持140
智通财经网·2025-07-14 07:05