烧碱、钾肥价格上行，看好结构性投资机会

Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has shown weak price performance this week, with 28.2% of the 170 tracked products increasing in price, while 40.6% decreased, and 31.2% remained stable [1][3] - Key products with notable price increases include trichloromethane, butane (CFR East China), caustic soda (32% ion membrane, Shandong), butadiene (Shandong), and lithium carbonate [1][3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - As of July 11, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $70.36 and $68.45 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.02% and 2.93% respectively from the previous week [2] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August due to low global oil market inventories [2] - The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than previous estimates [2] Group 3: Price and Margin Analysis - The average inventory conversion loss for crude oil this week was 254 yuan/ton, while propane had a loss of 493 yuan/ton [3] - The chemical product price spread has also shown weakness, with 43.1% of the 130 tracked spreads increasing, while 54.6% decreased [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The valuation of the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors is currently at 18.1x and 24.7x PE (TTM), which is 12.0% and -8.1% relative to historical averages [4] - The chemical industry is expected to see structural opportunities and valuation recovery in the second half of the year, driven by domestic demand and policy stimulus [4] - Three investment themes are suggested: focusing on domestic demand, exploring cyclical opportunities due to supply constraints, and accelerating domestic substitution in new materials [4]