智通财经网·2025-07-14 08:04Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prevailing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, with major Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warning of a new bear market for the dollar, driven by both cyclical and structural factors [1][6][7]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - The US dollar index has experienced its weakest performance in the first half of the year since the Nixon administration ended the gold standard, with a decline of approximately 10% year-to-date [1][7]. - Major financial institutions predict that the dollar may enter a bear market trajectory until at least the end of 2026, influenced by the chaotic trade policies of the Trump administration [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Morgan Stanley's forex strategy team recommends establishing short positions on the dollar and suggests going long on currencies such as the euro, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone, which are seen as cyclical strong currencies [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that despite some short-term technical indicators suggesting a potential rebound for the dollar, the overall bearish trend remains intact due to accumulating fundamental disadvantages [5][7]. Group 3: Structural and Cyclical Factors - The dollar's mid-term bearish outlook is attributed to factors such as slowing US economic growth, narrowing interest rate differentials, high dollar valuations, and increasing fiscal deficits [7][8]. - The report highlights that trade policy uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, pose significant risks to the dollar's future performance, potentially undermining investor confidence [11][12]. Group 4: Trade Risks and Tariff Policies - The potential for renewed tariffs under the Trump administration is identified as a critical risk factor that could negatively impact the dollar and the broader US economy [11][12]. - The report warns that if widespread tariffs are implemented, it could lead to a significant loss of confidence in dollar assets, prompting a shift towards defensive currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [11][12].