Core Viewpoint - Forex market option traders have resumed shorting the Japanese yen ahead of the upcoming Japanese Senate elections on July 20, with polls indicating that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition may lose its majority in the Senate [1][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - As of July 11, the trading volume of call options for USD/JPY was more than double that of put options, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the dollar against the yen [3] - Asset management firms held a net long position of 89,331 contracts for USD/JPY as of July 8, reflecting strong interest in the dollar [3] - Traders are betting on a rebound of USD/JPY to the 200-day moving average of 149.71, with the current level around 147 [3] Group 2: Economic Implications and Bond Market Reactions - The election results are expected to pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus, leading to further selling of Japanese government bonds and rising yields, which will impact the yen's performance [4] - On July 14, the 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.165%, nearing the historical high of 3.185% set in May [4] - The 20-year bond yield also increased by 12.5 basis points to 2.625%, the highest level since 2000, while the 40-year bond yield surged by 17 basis points to 3.495% [4] Group 3: External Factors Influencing Market Dynamics - The sentiment towards the yen has been deteriorating due to the lack of progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations and worsening fiscal outlook for Japan [4] - Recent announcements from US President Trump regarding a potential increase in tariffs on Japan to 25% starting August 1 have added to market uncertainty [5] - The latest US non-farm payroll report has sparked interest among traders to go long on USD/JPY, as it has led to a reassessment of the timing of a potential slowdown in the US economy and a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations [5]
做空日元卷土重来！日本参议院选举前投资者押注美元兑日元重返150
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-07-14 08:11