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Economic Environment - The external environment is undergoing profound changes, with increased geopolitical turmoil and weakened global economic growth. China's economy is in a period of transition between old and new growth drivers, maintaining stable growth, indicating enhanced resilience [1] - The global economy is expected to grow at around 3% until 2030, a decline from the pre-pandemic average of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019. Recent forecasts from the World Bank and IMF have lowered 2025 global growth predictions by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively [1] Domestic Demand Expansion - There is a structural deviation in China's household consumption rate compared to international levels, with the 2023 rate at 39.6%, significantly lower than the US (68%), EU (52%), Japan (55%), and South Korea (48%). This indicates a need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [4][5] - To address the low consumption rate, measures should focus on increasing residents' income and consumption capacity, enhancing social security, and optimizing fiscal expenditure towards public services and livelihood [5] Service Consumption Potential - With commodity consumption reaching saturation, there is significant potential for service consumption, projected to account for 46.1% of total household consumption in 2024. There is a growing demand for diverse and high-quality service offerings [6] - Recommendations include relaxing entry restrictions in sectors like education, healthcare, and tourism to attract more social capital and meet the diverse service consumption needs of the population [6] Investment and Consumption Synergy - Consumption and investment are interlinked, with consumption being a slow variable and investment a fast variable. In the current context of weak household consumption and insufficient social investment, government investment should focus on technology innovation and new infrastructure to stimulate new types of consumption [6] Long-term Mechanisms for Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand requires a combination of short-term policies and long-term institutional reforms. Key reforms include adjusting the consumption tax system to incentivize local governments to promote consumption and linking price and wage reforms to improve service supply and market expectations [8] - Accelerating the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations can significantly boost consumption, with studies suggesting a potential 30% increase in per capita consumption if these populations adopt urban consumption patterns [9] Historical Context - China's effective response to past financial crises has positioned it as a key economic player in Asia and the world. Continued effective management of external shocks is expected to elevate China's economic status further [10]