【新华解读】二季度全球央行货币政策观察：于关税风暴中进退维谷 在谨慎观望中克制宽松

Core Viewpoint - The global economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, with many central banks maintaining a cautious stance and extending their easing policies in response to external risks and weakening demand [1][12]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve has resisted pressure from President Trump to raise interest rates, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid concerns over economic uncertainty [2][12]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England have both lowered interest rates, with the ECB reducing rates by 50 basis points in recent months, while the Bank of England has room for a potential 25 basis point cut [4][5]. - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy rate at 0.50% and slowed its bond purchase reduction, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization [4][12]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation pressures have eased in the Eurozone, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 1.9%, prompting the ECB to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [5][12]. - The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in April, influenced by U.S. tariff policies, leading to a cautious approach from the Bank of England regarding future rate cuts [5][12]. - Emerging markets have shown a mixed response, with countries like Russia and Mexico cutting rates significantly, while Brazil and Turkey have unexpectedly raised rates due to inflation concerns [7][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the global economic downturn risks will continue to rise, but weakening demand may alleviate inflation pressures, leading to a cautious continuation of easing policies by various central banks [1][12]. - The Federal Reserve and ECB are anticipated to keep their easing windows open until at least September, while the Bank of England may also consider further cuts if economic conditions do not improve [1][12].