“关税大棒”会怎样影响美股市场，跨境美股ETF重回高位

Core Viewpoint - The main supporting factors for the market include declining interest rates, strong employment, and high profitability of large enterprises [1][6][7] Group 1: Market Performance - Cross-border US stock ETFs listed in China have returned to historical highs, with the Nasdaq ETF and US 50 ETF net values reported at 2.039 and 1.3 respectively [1] - The performance of domestic ETFs is closely aligned with recent trends in US stocks, particularly driven by technology giants [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for US stocks, predicting a 12-month point forecast of 6900, up from 6500 [1][6] Group 2: Tariff Impact - There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on US corporate profits and inflation, with recent data showing that tariff revenues have increased without a corresponding rise in inflation [1][4] - Morgan Stanley indicates that some sectors are experiencing deflationary signs, as companies may consider lowering prices instead of raising them due to high inventory levels [4][5] - The increase in tariffs has not yet translated into higher consumer prices, partly because companies are still selling old inventory purchased before the tariffs were announced [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.6% and 1.2% over the next two years [6] - The labor market remains strong, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in the next 12 months [6] - The strong earnings growth of the S&P 500, particularly from the "Tech Seven," has been a key source of resilience in the market, with a year-on-year EPS growth of 12% in Q1 [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Concerns remain regarding the future of US stocks, particularly with the elevated forward P/E ratio of 22, which is at the 97th percentile since 1980 [6][7] - The main uncertainty lies in how effectively companies can pass on tariff costs to consumers, which could impact profit margins and future earnings growth [7] - If companies maintain expansionary profit margins and benefit from fiscal stimulus, earnings growth may exceed expectations [7]