银行转债加速“缩编”：年内千亿规模或将蒸发

Core Viewpoint - The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant contraction in supply, driven by strong performance in bank stocks, leading to a reduction in the total balance of bank convertible bonds from nearly 300 billion yuan at the peak in 2023 to approximately 150 billion yuan currently [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total balance of bank convertible bonds is expected to shrink by at least 100 billion yuan this year due to the early redemption of several bonds and the lack of new issuances [2][3]. - As of July 14, 2023, the market share of bank convertible bonds has decreased from a peak of approximately 38.97% to about 22.64% [2][7]. - The strong performance of bank stocks, with the bank sector index reaching a historical high, has triggered the early redemption of several convertible bonds [5][10]. Group 2: Institutional Response - Institutions are beginning to shift their asset allocation strategies in response to the rapid loss of quality assets in the bank convertible bond market, with some moving towards high-rated convertible bonds in non-bank financials and public utilities [1][11]. - The average allocation of convertible bonds in various asset management products has reached around 78%, indicating a sustained interest despite the market's contraction [9]. - Institutions are actively seeking alternative investment opportunities, focusing on high-rated, low-volatility convertible bonds as replacements for bank convertible bonds [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing contraction in the bank convertible bond market may lead to increased difficulty in selecting suitable bonds, prompting some investors to exit the market [10]. - The focus on non-bank financial and public utility sectors is expected to grow, as these sectors are perceived to have lower credit risk and potential benefits from improved equity risk preferences [12]. - The potential for a "Davis double" effect, where both stock price increases and valuation improvements occur, is seen as a favorable scenario for convertible bonds in the current market environment [10].