【财经分析】震荡无碍“慢牛”延续 债市中期韧性仍存

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to negative factors, but there is still resilience and potential for a "slow bull" market to continue [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recently, bond yields have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the 10-year government bond rate rising to 1.67% (+2.5 BP) and the 30-year bond rate jumping to 1.88% (+2.5 BP) from July 7 to July 11 [3]. - The market is currently facing pressure from various factors, including a rebound in funding rates after the completion of cross-quarter capital return, with R001 and R007 rising to 1.40% and 1.51%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1 has disturbed market sentiment [5]. - Speculation regarding regulatory guidance for local rural commercial banks to limit bond investments to no more than 20% of total assets has led to a short-term increase in medium to long-term bond yields [5]. - The Ministry of Finance's announcement regarding state-owned insurance companies implementing long-term assessments is expected to channel "long money" into the stock market, which could positively impact the stock market [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the majority of institutions do not hold a bearish view on the bond market, citing continued support from factors such as a loose funding environment and the risks of weak domestic and external demand [7]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions indicate a high level of risk appetite, and the likelihood of a trend reversal in the bond market remains low [7]. - The bond market may experience a quick recovery if the central bank maintains a supportive stance on funding, with opportunities for positioning during adjustments [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on the potential for bond yields to stabilize within the range of 1.65% to 1.7% for the 10-year government bond, presenting a "buy on dips" opportunity [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-grade credit bonds and long-term bonds favored by insurance funds, while maintaining liquidity and controlling duration risk [8]. - The overall sentiment among optimistic institutions is that the bond market remains favorable for investment, with suggestions for investors to actively seize the adjustment opportunities for better positioning in the second half of the year [8].