美股狂飙之际 “第三季度魔咒”会降临吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by easing tariff concerns and renewed narratives around AI and computing power, but faces challenges with the upcoming earnings season and liquidity risks in Q3 [1][2] - Analysts predict a notable divergence in sector performance, with a slowdown in earnings growth expected compared to Q1 2025, particularly in the energy sector, which is forecasted to decline by 26%, while technology remains strong with expected growth of 16.6% in information technology [2] - The S&P 500 index's Shiller PE ratio stands at 38.12, nearing historical highs, indicating that the market is currently overvalued, and future valuation increases may be limited [3] Group 2 - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two rate cuts this year, but there is increasing disagreement about the timing of these cuts, particularly for the September meeting [5][8] - The upcoming debt issuance wave and the large scale of maturing U.S. debt are anticipated to create liquidity shocks that could impact the stock market's performance in Q3 [9][10] - Historical data suggests that following the lifting of the debt ceiling in June 2023, the market experienced a significant bond issuance peak, leading to increased yields and a subsequent decline in the S&P 500 index [10]