Higher Fee Income and NII to Aid M&T Bank's Q2 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q2 2025, despite challenges such as a fall in loan balance and rising expenses in the previous quarter [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus estimate for MTB's Q2 2025 earnings is $4.03 per share, reflecting a 6.3% increase from the previous year [13]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.39 billion, indicating a 3.6% rise from the prior-year reported level [13]. - MTB's management anticipates a modest rise in average loans for Q2 2025, contributing to the growth of average interest-earning assets, which is estimated at $191.8 billion, a 1.4% increase from the prior quarter [4]. Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Fee Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is projected at $1.75 billion, representing a 3.1% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - Management expects higher average total deposits in Q2 2025, which is likely to enhance revenues from service charges on deposit accounts, with a consensus estimate of $135.9 million, a 2.2% rise from the prior quarter [6]. - Mortgage banking fees are expected to improve, with the consensus estimate pegged at $128 million, indicating an 8.5% rise from the previous quarter [8]. Group 3: Expense Management - MTB's management projects a sequential decline in total expenses for Q2 2025, primarily due to lower seasonal compensation costs, with total expenses estimated at $1.37 billion, reflecting a 3.4% decrease [11]. - Despite pressures on NII and concerns regarding expenses, the company is expected to post higher earnings and revenues, supported by mortgage and deposit fees [10]. Group 4: Earnings Surprise Potential - The company has surpassed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.67% [2]. - The Earnings ESP for MTB is +0.12%, indicating a favorable outlook for beating estimates this time [12].