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2025年上半年经济学家问卷调查显示 二季度经济预期向好 中国资产配置价值持续提升
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-07-14 18:38

Group 1: Economic Growth Outlook - Over 80% of respondents believe that the GDP growth rate in Q2 will not be lower than 5%, with 48.3% expecting it to be between 5.0% and 5.2% [1][2] - The survey indicates that 60.1% of respondents foresee challenges to economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The "Securities Times Economic Expectation Heat Index" for Q3 has increased by 5.22 percentage points but remains below the neutral line, indicating cautious optimism [4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - More than 60% of respondents view the monetary policy as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive assessment of recent monetary measures [2] - 40% of respondents believe there is a need for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [8] Group 3: Consumer and Investment Trends - 53.4% of respondents expect consumer conditions to remain stable, while 43.3% express concerns about potential declines in consumer momentum [4][5] - 43.3% of respondents anticipate that private investment confidence will stabilize in Q3, showing an 18.7 percentage point increase from the previous survey [5] Group 4: Real Estate Market Insights - 55% of respondents believe that the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while 36.7% think it has not yet reached that point [5] - Over half of the respondents (51.7%) expect a slight decline in overall real estate sales heat in Q3, indicating concerns about a cooling market [5] Group 5: Stock and Currency Market Performance - 81.7% of respondents rated the stock market's performance in Q3 positively, reflecting a significant increase in optimism [3][6] - 75% of respondents expect the RMB to remain within the 7.0 to 7.2 range against the USD for most of Q3, indicating stability in the currency market [7] Group 6: Trade and Economic Policy Recommendations - 70% of respondents believe that the impact of US-China trade negotiations on China's economy will be manageable, despite concerns about export growth [8] - 65% of respondents suggest increasing the total quota for the "old-for-new" consumption policy to stimulate domestic demand [9]