Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-14 23:04Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of major express delivery companies in the A-share market, such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, is attributed to the government's stance against "involution" in the industry, aiming to enhance regulation and service quality [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for unified regulations and opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to increased market interest in the express delivery sector [1]. - The express delivery industry has seen a decline in average revenue per ticket over the past three years due to intensified price competition and the trend of smaller e-commerce packages [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By May 2025, YTO Express's average revenue per ticket is projected to drop from 2.42 yuan to 2.12 yuan, Shentong Express from 2.23 yuan to 1.95 yuan, and Yunda Express from 2.29 yuan to 1.92 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4% to 12% [4][6]. - YTO Express has maintained the highest average revenue per ticket in 2023, benefiting from high-end timely products and service quality improvements, while Yunda Express has the lowest due to management issues [6][10]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - YTO Express leads in average profit per ticket due to effective cost management and synergy in air freight, while Shentong Express showed improvement in 2024, with profits rising from 0.019 yuan to 0.046 yuan due to reduced costs [8][10]. - The overall profit performance of these companies has been declining, with Yunda Express facing significant pressure from competition and cost management failures [8][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has experienced a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with a projected business volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, a 32.6% increase from 2023 [9]. - Shentong Express is expected to have the fastest growth rate in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.83%, driven by capacity expansion and collaboration within the Alibaba ecosystem [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's recent enthusiasm for YTO and Shentong Express stocks is seen as a reaction to long-standing industry pressures rather than fundamental changes in company performance [13]. - Both companies are positioned to benefit first if the government's anti-involution policies lead to tangible changes in the industry [13].