智通财经网·2025-07-15 00:07Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) introduced by President Trump is significantly impacting the U.S. renewable energy sector, shifting market expectations and prompting analysts to downgrade several solar companies while creating "winners" and "losers" in the industry [1] Winners and Losers - Companies favored under the new policy include First Solar (FSLR.US), Bloom Energy (BE.US), and Sunrun (RUN.US), which are expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies and favorable technology licensing [2] - Conversely, Fluence Energy (FLNC.US), Nextracker (NXT.US), Shoals Technologies (SHLS.US), and Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT.US) face greater policy resistance and market saturation risks, leading to rating downgrades for these firms [2] Utility Solar Outlook - The outlook for utility-scale solar projects appears bleak, as the bill accelerates the expiration of tax incentives for solar and wind energy, with potential construction deadlines and grid access bottlenecks limiting project deployment [3] - Nextracker and Shoals have had their ratings downgraded from "outperform" to "neutral," with Nextracker's target price reduced by 3% to $65 [3] Manufacturing and Storage Boost - Domestic clean energy manufacturers are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the OBBB, with the 45X manufacturing tax credit retained and restrictions placed on foreign entities from receiving subsidies [4] - Target prices for Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) and First Solar have been adjusted upward, reflecting their eligibility for subsidies due to U.S. manufacturing [4] Fuel Cells and Nuclear Energy Favor - The bill reinstates a 30% investment tax credit for natural gas fuel cells, benefiting companies like Bloom Energy, which sees its target price raised by 19% to $31 [5] - New nuclear technologies also receive extended tax credit support until 2033, positioning the nuclear sector as a long-term winner under the OBBB [5] Broad Impact on Clean Energy Technology - While the OBBB retains manufacturing subsidies and storage incentives, the accelerated exit of solar and wind support policies may lead to a short-term demand surge followed by uncertainty [7] - The bill significantly restricts opportunities for Chinese companies to receive U.S. clean energy subsidies, posing challenges for firms reliant on Chinese manufacturing for batteries or solar panels [7]