【新华财经调查】风机大型化与退役潮双重发力 增速器或面临较大供给缺口

Industry Overview - The wind power industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installed capacity expected to reach a historical high of 79.82 million kW in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power is projected to be 520 million kW, a year-on-year growth of 18.0%, accounting for 15.1% of the total installed capacity of electricity in the country [2] - The trend of "large-scale wind turbines" and the replacement of retired units are driving demand for high-power units, leading to a significant supply gap for core components like wind power gearboxes [1][8] Technological Advancements - The wind power sector has benefited from continuous technological innovation and the expansion of industry scale, resulting in a substantial reduction in costs [5] - The average single-unit capacity of newly signed offshore wind power orders in 2024 has risen to 9.981 MW, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [7] - The trend of turbine large-scaleization is expected to significantly lower project costs, with projects using 10 MW turbines potentially reducing costs by over 20% compared to those using 5 MW turbines [6][10] Market Dynamics - The competition in the wind power industry is intensifying, with technological advancements leading to cost optimization and improved project profitability [2][3] - The implementation of the "136 Document" policy encourages renewable energy projects to participate in market transactions, potentially enhancing the profitability of wind power projects [3] - The wind power industry is expected to see a shift in new energy indicators favoring wind power due to its competitive cost structure compared to solar power [4] Supply Chain and Demand - The wind power gearbox market is anticipated to face a significant supply gap due to the dual pressures of retiring old units and increasing demand for new installations [9][10] - The market for replacing retired wind turbines is projected to grow exponentially, with an estimated 1.25 GW of capacity expected to be retired by 2025 and cumulative retirements reaching 100 GW by 2035 [8] - Companies like 威力传动 are strategically positioning themselves to meet the demand for wind power gearboxes by establishing production facilities in key regions and focusing on lifecycle service [9]