绿醇项目，卡在哪儿了

Core Viewpoint - The development of green methanol projects in China is hindered by high costs and insufficient infrastructure, despite initial enthusiasm and government support for the industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Project Status and Challenges - Currently, there are 16 planned, under-construction, and operational green methanol projects in China, with a total capacity exceeding 1.18 million tons per year, but few have actually commenced construction [1]. - High costs are a significant barrier, with green methanol prices expected to be between 7,000 to 8,000 RMB per ton, while a more acceptable price would be 2,500 to 4,000 RMB per ton, factoring in carbon taxes [2]. - Approximately half of the green methanol projects are opting for "biomass + green hydrogen" solutions, while others are using "CO2 hydrogenation" and "coal chemical low-carbon methanol" methods [2]. Group 2: Raw Material and Market Issues - The supply of biomass raw materials is inconsistent due to seasonal agricultural production, leading to challenges in stable and reasonable pricing [3]. - The acceptance of green methanol as a diesel substitute varies regionally, and its promotion is limited by the adequacy of refueling and transportation infrastructure [3]. - Some international vessels initially intended to use green methanol are now considering liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to high costs [3]. Group 3: Standards and Production Efficiency - There is ongoing debate regarding the standards for green methanol, particularly concerning the sources of CO2 used in production [4]. - The industry needs to focus on effectively and cost-efficiently utilizing green electricity and hydrogen, rather than merely pursuing "green" labels [5][6]. - Experts suggest leveraging coal gasification technology to optimize the production process and minimize CO2 emissions [6]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Industry Development - The green methanol industry should adopt a gradual approach to development, integrating renewable energy with traditional methanol production methods [7]. - Large enterprises in the ammonia and methanol sectors should seek government policy support and collaborate with local renewable energy companies to reduce electricity costs [7]. - The establishment of standards for green methanol is crucial, with the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association initiating the development of a "Green Methanol Grading Standard" set to be released in October 2024 [7]. - Expanding the downstream applications of green methanol is essential, particularly in chemical raw materials and agricultural products, to reduce carbon emissions in these sectors [7].