智通财经网·2025-07-15 01:59Group 1 - Wall Street strategists believe that the required reserve levels predicted by Federal Reserve Governor Waller should be higher to prevent system disruptions [1] - Waller indicated that the Fed could reduce bank reserves to approximately $2.7 trillion, down from the current level of about $3.34 trillion, allowing for continued balance sheet reduction known as "quantitative tightening" [1] - JPMorgan strategists suggest that the adequate reserve levels may need to be increased to avoid disruptions in the overnight funding market [1] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring the cash reserves of banks at the Federal Reserve to determine when to halt balance sheet contraction [4] - The U.S. Congress has raised the debt ceiling, and Wall Street is focused on the growing cash balance of the Treasury, which is withdrawing excess liquidity from the system, potentially making the market susceptible to unexpected events like the regional banking crisis in March 2023 [4] - The New York Fed's latest survey indicated that the median reserve balance level when quantitative tightening ends is expected to be $2.875 trillion [4] Group 3 - Policymakers are striving to avoid a repeat of the repo market turmoil experienced in September 2019, which was triggered by a shortage of funds due to unprecedented reserve levels [5] - Waller noted that in September 2019, bank reserves as a percentage of GDP fell below 7%, while in January 2019, the ratio was around 8%, indicating no significant pressure on the financial system at that time [5] - Waller currently believes that a reserve level below 9% of GDP would indicate a shortage situation [5]