碳五碳九树脂如何跳出“内卷”循环

Core Viewpoint - The carbon five and carbon nine petroleum resin industry in China is facing unprecedented challenges, necessitating a shift towards "anti-involution" and transformation due to overcapacity and price competition. Supply and Demand - The rapid development of the domestic ethylene industry has provided ample raw materials, prompting companies to continuously expand production capacity. However, external demand has contracted due to global economic downturns and rising trade protectionism, leading to a situation where increased production does not translate into higher revenues. By 2025, total industry capacity is expected to exceed 2.6 million tons, while actual production is projected to be less than 1.5 million tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of less than 60% [1] - The industry structure is severely homogenized, with over 67% of carbon nine petroleum resins being standard grades, while high-value specialty resins remain limited. This lack of differentiation forces companies to rely on price competition for survival. The market price of general-grade hydrogenated petroleum resins has fluctuated dramatically, dropping from approximately 15,000 yuan/ton at its peak to below 8,500 yuan/ton by the second quarter of 2025, nearing the production cost line of most companies (8,000-9,000 yuan/ton), resulting in negative average profit margins [1] Market Competition - The change in market concentration has intensified price competition, with the top five domestic companies increasing their capacity share from 38% in 2019 to 45% in 2024. Leading companies are engaging in a vicious cycle of "capacity expansion - price decline - expansion to break even" through marginal contribution pricing methods [2] - The rise of global trade protectionism has led to frequent anti-dumping lawsuits against Chinese carbon five and carbon nine petroleum resin products, with tariffs exceeding 30% imposed by the US, South Korea, the EU, India, and Brazil, significantly weakening the international competitiveness of domestic companies. Additionally, global demand shrinkage is constraining export growth, with the global plastic market growth rate expected to drop to 5% and the coatings market growth rate slowing to 5.5% by 2025. Orders for plastic products in Southeast Asia have decreased by 15% year-on-year [2] Recommendations for Transformation - The carbon five and carbon nine petroleum resin industry should focus on high-end product development, as there is still a supply gap for high-end products like hydrogenated resins. Domestic companies should prioritize R&D for specialty resins that meet the requirements of high-end fields such as food packaging and medical devices to avoid homogenized competition [3] - Strengthening technological innovation is essential, with increased R&D investment to overcome core technical bottlenecks in hydrogenation processes and catalyst efficiency. Collaboration between industry, academia, and research, along with digital transformation, are effective ways to enhance competitiveness [3] - Integrating the industrial chain by extending upstream to improve raw material self-sufficiency and expanding downstream to develop end-use products is crucial. Additionally, recycling and reusing waste resins aligns with environmental trends and can lower raw material costs [3] - Establishing international production capacity through overseas factories or acquisitions can help avoid anti-dumping restrictions. Developing emerging markets along the "Belt and Road" initiative can diversify market risks [3]