日本央行前首席经济学家预警：可能最早10月加息

Group 1 - The former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Harukawa Hideo, indicated that if tariff uncertainties dissipate, Japan's inflation could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates as early as this fall [1] - Harukawa believes that the Bank of Japan will likely revise its inflation forecasts upward for both the current and next fiscal years, reflecting a trend where companies are increasingly passing costs onto consumers [1][3] - The Bank of Japan's latest outlook report predicts a 2.2% increase in the core consumer price index for the fiscal year ending in March, while the increase for the following 12 months is only expected to be 1.7% [1][3] Group 2 - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's price target for three consecutive years, leading to discussions about whether the central bank should take action [2][3] - The upcoming July 20 Senate elections in Japan have made inflation a focal point, with differing views between the ruling and opposition parties on whether to provide cash subsidies or tax cuts [2] - A recent quarterly public opinion survey indicated that the Japanese public believes prices have risen by 20% over the past year, marking the highest recorded increase [2][3]