美CPI来袭市场严阵以待沪金区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with market predictions indicating a rise in the June CPI year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7% and a core CPI increase to 3% from 2.8% in May [3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold futures are currently trading around 777.30 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase of 0.15% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for gold futures today were 779.08 yuan per gram and 775.84 yuan per gram, respectively [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be oscillating [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates that if the actual inflation data meets or exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Conversely, if inflation data falls below expectations, it could reignite market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - There is growing concern regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, especially with the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [3] - The White House economic advisor has attributed a $700 million cost overrun on the Fed's headquarters renovation to the Federal Reserve, increasing market uncertainty [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The current trading pattern for Shanghai gold futures indicates a strong oscillation, with key price levels being contested [3] - The main contract is fluctuating around 781 yuan per gram, with short-term support identified between 765-800 yuan per gram and resistance levels at 781-795 yuan per gram [3] - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average show signs of a golden cross, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the price stabilizes above the 10-day moving average (approximately 770 yuan per gram) [3]