90亿新高！30年国债ETF博时(511130)单日吸金7亿，债市调整尾声已现？

Market Overview - The equity market experienced fluctuations with a significant decrease in trading volume, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment [1] - The bond market showed a weak trend with government bond yields generally rising by 0-1 basis points [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.30%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.11% and 0.08% respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时511130) saw a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 1.63 billion and a total scale surpassing 9 billion [1][5] Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to the market digesting high risk preferences, with daily adjustments exceeding 1 basis point [1] - Despite frequent negative news, key variables influencing the bond market, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [1] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The liquidity situation is tightening, with the central bank's reverse repo balance decreasing significantly, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [2] - The upcoming tax payment period is expected to exert further pressure on liquidity, with a projected shortfall of approximately 2.3 trillion [2][4] Future Outlook - The bond market may recover quickly if the central bank maintains a supportive stance towards liquidity, presenting opportunities for investors [3][5] - The 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as a key investment focus due to its strong performance and significant inflows, reflecting investor confidence in long-term bonds [5]