市场供需结构偏紧 焦煤期货盘面短期以震荡看待

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand structure, leading to a short-term bullish sentiment despite recent price declines [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Coking coal futures fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a low of 898.0 yuan, closing at 899.0 yuan, a decrease of 1.75% [1]. - The current supply-demand structure for coking coal is tight, with domestic production showing mixed results due to maintenance and operational constraints in some coal mines [2]. - The closure of the Mongolian border has reduced the supply of imported coal, leading to high trade prices and a diminished role of imports in the domestic market [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Downstream coking enterprises are increasing their purchasing activity due to expectations of a price hike in coke, which is accelerating inventory replenishment [2]. - The production of iron and steel remains relatively high, providing a fundamental support for coking coal demand [2]. - Market sentiment is further buoyed by speculative activities, contributing to a generally positive outlook for demand [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market is expected to remain strong, with a focus on the pace of domestic coal mine restarts, the sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, and the timing of coke price increases [2]. - Short-term projections indicate a stable coking coal output, with some recovery in production expected as previously halted mines resume operations [3]. - The market sentiment is improving, with better spot market transactions and a general expectation of a bullish trend in the near term [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The central bank's continued implementation of loose monetary policy, including a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation, is influencing market dynamics [4]. - The coal industry is being urged to improve quality and respond to national market unification policies, which may impact future pricing and operational strategies [4]. - The rebound in thermal coal prices has positively affected coking coal prices, indicating a correlation between the two markets [4].