期货收评：集运一度逼近涨停！多晶硅、工业硅再创阶段新高

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations driven by strong seasonal demand, tariff announcements, and geopolitical factors, impacting various commodities including multi-crystalline silicon, industrial silicon, and fuel oil. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Multi-crystalline silicon and industrial silicon have continued their upward trend, with both surpassing key price thresholds, reaching over 43,000 and 8,800 respectively, marking new highs [7][9] - The European shipping index surged by 15.75%, reflecting strong demand during the peak season, with prices nearing a limit-up increase of over 17% [3][5] - Fuel oil prices have declined by approximately 2.81%, attributed to global trade concerns and supply pressures, indicating a weak market sentiment [11] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Strong seasonal demand is a crucial factor for the recent price increases, with Maersk reporting a nearly 5% rise in shipping rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam, despite some reductions from Mediterranean shipping [5] - The upcoming 30% tariffs on products imported from Mexico and the EU may alter transportation demand, further stimulating speculative market behavior [5] - In the multi-crystalline silicon sector, production is expected to increase among leading suppliers, while some smaller firms may reduce output, leading to a mixed supply outlook [9][10] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategies - The current market sentiment suggests that despite potential negative impacts from tariff policies, strong seasonal demand may stabilize spot prices at high levels, supporting upward trends in futures prices [5][9] - Analysts recommend adjusting trading strategies in the futures market to account for policy changes and market sentiment fluctuations, suggesting a shift to specific spread strategies [5] - The fuel oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure in the short term, particularly in the high-sulfur segment, due to oversupply and competitive pricing [11]