Group 1 - The potential implementation of a 30% tariff on European goods by the U.S. could significantly disrupt the transatlantic trade system and force Europe to reconsider its export-oriented economic model [1] - European officials are optimistic about reaching an agreement to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship before the August 1 deadline, despite the uncertainty surrounding Trump's stance on the EU [1][2] - The European Commission's trade chief warned that a 30% tariff would effectively act as a trade ban, jeopardizing the established trade relations [1] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average 35% tariff on EU goods, combined with a 10% countermeasure from Brussels, could shrink Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [2] - The potential economic impact could lead the European Central Bank to lower its deposit rate further, possibly down to 1% by March 2026, as inflation may remain below the 2% target for an extended period [3] - The German Economic Institute estimates that tariffs of 20%-50% could result in over €200 billion in losses for Germany's economy by 2028, affecting the government's economic policy efforts [3] Group 3 - The long-term implications of tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for economic activity losses to sustain tax revenue and employment, which are crucial for various ambitions, including pension and military reforms [3][4] - Despite efforts to diversify trade partnerships, the EU faces challenges in establishing new markets, as highlighted by the prolonged negotiations for the EU-Mercosur trade agreement [3][5] - Observers suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide an opportunity for the EU to push through long-delayed single market reforms and reduce reliance on exports, which account for a significant portion of its output [4]
30%关税迎来倒计时 特朗普贸易政策或重创欧洲出口引擎
智通财经网·2025-07-15 07:33