债市日报：7月15日

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on July 15, with government bond futures rising across the board, supported by stable economic data [1] - The average yield on interbank cash bonds fell by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year contract rose by 0.47% to 120.760, 10-year contract increased by 0.18% to 108.890, 5-year contract up by 0.13% to 106.025, and 2-year contract up by 0.04% to 102.418 [2] - Major interbank bond yields turned downward, with the 7-year bond yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.595% and the 10-year bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.657% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.40 basis points to 4.433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 1.58% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 2 basis points to 3.430% [4] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4996%, 1.5524%, and 1.6815% respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, injecting 342.5 billion yuan into the market [6] - The Shibor rates for overnight and short-term products increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7] - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices increase month-on-month, with notable price changes in cities like Changsha and Shanghai [8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that export pressures may rise in the second half of the year, while Huatai Securities highlighted that the bond market remains crowded with potential short-term volatility [9] - Xingzheng Securities indicated that the bond bull market remains intact, with further room for long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields to reach new lows in Q3 [9]