短期商品整体氛围较强 锌价预计呈现震荡运行走势

Price Overview - On July 15, the mainstream transaction price for 0 zinc in Shanghai ranged from 22,180 to 22,300 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50-60 CNY/ton for the 2508 contract [1] - The national zinc price list shows various prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,200 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 21,930 CNY/ton [2] Futures Market - The closing price for the main zinc futures contract on July 15 was 22,085 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%, with a daily trading volume of 119,038 lots [2] Inventory and Production Insights - As of July 15, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse receipts at 91,975 tons, with a decrease of 2,575 tons in canceled receipts and an increase of 5,200 tons in total zinc inventory to 118,600 tons [3] - A zinc smelting plant in Central China plans a routine maintenance for half a month in August, expected to impact around 1,500 tons, while also planning to increase production capacity by 20,000 tons in Q4 or early next year [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Wenkang Futures, the short-term outlook is influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to heightened expectations for monetary easing and a stronger silver price [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry has a limited consumption share of zinc ingots, recent industrial policies have boosted market bullish sentiment, with polysilicon and other related products performing relatively strongly [4] - The overall commodity market sentiment appears strong, with zinc prices expected to exhibit a volatile trend [4]