M2、M1剪刀差收窄，最新居民存贷款数据透露哪些信号？

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, new credit increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, with a credit balance growth of 7.1% [1][2] - M2 growth rate rose to 8.3%, while M1 increased to 4.6%, indicating a significant activation of funds [1][7] - The financial data highlights a notable recovery in credit and social financing, reflecting enhanced monetary policy support for the real economy [1][4] Group 2: Consumer and Housing Demand - In June, household credit showed a "slight year-on-year increase and a significant month-on-month rise," indicating a moderate recovery in consumption and housing demand [2][3] - The average interest rate for personal housing loans dropped to 3.1%, easing the monthly payment burden on residents and contributing to a 17% month-on-month increase in housing transactions in 30 major cities [2][3] Group 3: Loan Structure and Trends - The structure of household loans in the first half of the year showed a "long-term dominance and short-term drag" characteristic, with total household loans increasing by 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 290 billion yuan [3][4] - Short-term loans decreased slightly, while medium- and long-term loans increased significantly, reflecting cautious consumer behavior regarding spending and housing purchases [3][4] Group 4: Deposit Trends - In the first half of the year, RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 320.17 trillion yuan by the end of June, showing an 8.3% year-on-year growth [6][7] - The structure of deposits has shifted, with a significant increase in the proportion of demand deposits, reaching 83% for households and 95% for enterprises [7][8] Group 5: Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy focus for the second half of the year will center on "expanding domestic demand" and "curbing involution," with expectations for further monetary easing [9][10] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption, aiming to enhance economic restructuring and transformation [9][10]