大摩：美国经济与市场并不同步 而这种差距将继续走阔

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley projects a slowdown in the US economy in the second half of the year, yet maintains a target for the S&P 500 index at 6500 points in one year, based on an earnings per share estimate of nearly $300, reflecting a growth of approximately 10% [1][4] - The report indicates that the dollar is expected to decline by an additional 10%, which will exacerbate the gap between economic performance and market behavior [1][7] - The divergence between earnings growth and nominal GDP growth is attributed to factors such as dollar fluctuations, regulatory policies, and fiscal policies, with the stock market having a greater exposure to global markets than the overall economy [4][7] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is anticipated to manifest in the coming months, contributing to a slowdown in the US economy, while the labor market shows signs of cooling without collapsing [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates longer than market expectations due to adverse economic factors, including immigration restrictions affecting labor supply growth [2] - The report highlights that while nominal GDP growth is projected at 4%, there remains a discrepancy between this and earnings forecasts, suggesting that the market may continue to price in productivity gains from artificial intelligence ahead of GDP data [4][7]