6月CPI年率如期抬头，关税引发的通胀就此开始？7月美联储降息预期或彻底落空，9月还有希望吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and their implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [13][17]. - The overall CPI stands at 2.7%, with specific categories showing varied inflation rates, such as food at 5.6% and energy at -0.8% [4][7]. - The article discusses the regional CPI variations, with the South region showing the lowest CPI at 2.3% and the New England region at 3.1% [10][12]. Group 2 - Analysts express skepticism about the CPI report prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September, citing the impact of upcoming tariffs [16][18]. - The article notes that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen significantly from 2.4% in January to 20.6% by mid-July, the highest level since 1910, which may contribute to inflationary pressures [17]. - There are indications of economic weakness, with some service prices showing signs of consumer confidence fragility, despite certain goods experiencing price increases [18].