Is HMY Stock a Screaming Buy After the 75% YTD Price Rally?

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) shares have surged 75.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's growth of 53% and the S&P 500's increase of 5.9% [2] - The stock's performance is attributed to rising gold prices and strong operational results, with peers Gold Fields Limited (GFI) and DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) gaining 83.6% and 59% respectively [2] Performance Metrics - HMY's stock has consistently traded above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since January 17, 2025, indicating a bullish trend, despite currently being below the 50-day SMA [5] - The stock trades at a forward price/earnings ratio of 5.05X, approximately 60% below the industry average, highlighting its value appeal [7][16] Growth Drivers - HMY is South Africa's largest gold producer, with an output of approximately 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024, supported by projects like Wafi-Golpu and Eva Copper [10] - The Wafi-Golpu project is expected to significantly enhance HMY's reserves, with an estimated 13 million ounces of gold, and is currently in negotiations for a Mining Development Contract [11] - The Eva Copper project, acquired in 2022, is anticipated to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper annually and is supported by a conditional grant from the Queensland government [12] Market Conditions - Gold prices have increased by roughly 28% this year, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases, with current prices hovering above $3,300 per ounce [13] - HMY reported a 30% increase in average gold prices received, reaching $2,497 per ounce for the nine months ending March 31, 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability [14] Financial Health - HMY's net cash rose approximately 53% to $592 million by the end of Q3 fiscal 2025, indicating strong financial health [15] - The company has a dividend policy to distribute 20% of net free cash to shareholders, with a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year annualized growth rate of about 19.4% [15] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - HMY's stock is considered attractive from a valuation perspective, trading at a significant discount compared to its peers [16] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 have been revised upward over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [19] Investment Recommendation - The combination of key development projects, favorable gold prices, solid financials, and attractive valuation positions HMY as a strong investment opportunity [21]