Economy Shows Signs of Warming: CPI, Q2 Bank Earnings

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by +0.3% month over month, which is warmer than the previous month's +0.1% [2] - Year-over-year CPI rose to +2.7%, marking a +30 basis points increase from the previous month and the highest level since February [3] - Core CPI year over year reached +2.9%, up 10 basis points month over month, but still 10 basis points below estimates [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The current interest rate remains between +4.25-4.50%, unchanged since December, but a potential change in leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to a more dovish stance on interest rates [4] Manufacturing and Economic Growth - The Empire State Index for July improved to +5.5 points, significantly better than the expected -9.0 and the previous month's -16.0, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing sentiment [5] Banking Sector Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 earnings of $4.96 per share, exceeding estimates by +10% and revenues of $44.91 billion, which surpassed estimates by +2.5% [7] - Citigroup's Q2 earnings were $1.96 per share, beating the consensus of $1.61, with revenues of $21.67 billion also exceeding expectations [8] - Wells Fargo reported Q2 earnings of $1.54 per share, surpassing projections of $1.41, although net interest income fell short of estimates [8]