Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference held on July 14-15 has indicated a new direction for urban development and domestic demand in China, shifting focus from population migration to the quality enhancement of urban functions [1][3][7] Group 1: Urbanization and Economic Impact - China's urbanization rate reached 67% in 2024, a significant increase from less than 20% at the beginning of the reform era, leading to a substantial rise in labor productivity and GDP growth [2][3] - The average labor productivity of agricultural workers transitioning to non-agricultural industries has increased by 3 to 5 times, contributing approximately 12% to GDP growth from 2015 to 2023 [2] - The consumption demand from newly urbanized populations is expanding, with per capita consumption expenditure 1.8 times higher than that of rural residents, translating to an annual increase in consumption demand of about 300 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Changes in Demand Dynamics - The marginal effect of urbanization on GDP growth has decreased, with the contribution of a 1% increase in urbanization rate dropping from 0.8 percentage points in 2015 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023 [3] - There is a significant gap between the registered urbanization rate and the actual urbanization rate, with about 140 million people yet to achieve urban citizenship, leading to a disparity in public service access and consumption potential [3][4] - Addressing the public service gap could release an additional 1.2 trillion yuan in annual consumption from the unurbanized population [3] Group 3: Transition to Modern Urban Development - The shift from urbanization to building modern people-oriented cities emphasizes "innovation + service" over traditional "population + land" inputs, aiming to enhance overall productivity [4][5] - The current urban demand growth is driven by consumption and innovation, with 72% of urban demand growth now coming from these sources, compared to 65% from investment during the urbanization phase [4][5] - The focus is now on quality indicators such as energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of high-tech industries, reflecting a transition from quantity to quality in domestic demand [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Future Directions - Collaborative development of urban clusters and metropolitan areas is expected to unleash strong investment momentum, with significant projects planned in regions like the Chengdu metropolitan area [5] - The green transition of cities, which account for 85% of national energy consumption, represents a substantial domestic market, with the value of green low-carbon industries projected to reach 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [6] - The emphasis on enhancing urban infrastructure safety and resilience is expected to generate substantial investment opportunities, with projected investments of 1.2 trillion yuan for old pipeline renovations and 500 billion yuan annually for flood control upgrades [6][7]
每经热评丨建设现代化人民城市是发展逻辑的一次重大升级
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-07-15 15:44