智通财经网·2025-07-16 01:20Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup reports that the capital adequacy ratio of the Hong Kong banking sector is at a historical high, providing better visibility for shareholder returns [1] - The Hong Kong banking sector has risen 37% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, with Bank of China Hong Kong showing the strongest gains due to strong buying from southbound funds chasing high dividend stocks [1][2] - Despite recent declines in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) potentially pressuring net interest margins, Citigroup expects profitability in the banking sector to improve as HIBOR gradually normalizes by Q4 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Ratings and Forecasts - Citigroup upgraded Hang Seng Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" based on three key factors: market consensus reflecting an average credit cost expectation of 50 basis points from 2025 to 2027, a core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio (CET1) of 21% as of Q1 2025, and revenue forecasts exceeding market expectations by 4% for 2026-2027 [3] - The target price for Hang Seng Bank has been raised from HKD 105 to HKD 135, while the target price for Bank of China Hong Kong has been increased from HKD 33.9 to HKD 40.8 due to stable revenue prospects and asset quality [3] - East Asia Bank's target price has been adjusted from HKD 11 to HKD 11.6 [3]