美国6月核心CPI连续5月低于预期，美联储降息何时到来？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July is low, with a maximum of two cuts expected within the year [1] - The June CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the highest level since February, while the core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The soft core inflation data does not support the notion that tariffs have a minimal impact on inflation, as indicators show tariffs have begun to affect prices of sensitive imported consumer goods [1] Group 2 - The expectation from the market is that the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see approach in July, with potential rate cuts starting in September [1] - The June CPI data indicates that inflation pressures are manageable, and there is no immediate risk of stagflation, allowing the Fed to remain cautious [1] - The analysis suggests that tariffs may further push up core commodity inflation, contradicting previous claims that tariffs do not transmit to consumer prices [2] Group 3 - The forecast from Huatai Securities maintains the view of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on inflation [2] - A significant percentage of manufacturing (88%) and service (82%) companies plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months, indicating a broader impact on inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve's observation of tariff impacts during the summer suggests that any rise in inflation may already be anticipated in their projections [2]