合成橡胶：丁二烯港口库存偏低 叠加商品偏强 BR短期坚挺

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 15, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2530 yuan/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis of 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 10, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.9%, a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 65.5%, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 65.8%, an increase of 2.6% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 61.1%, a decrease of 0.7% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 9, butadiene port inventory is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons, a decrease of 7.8% month-on-month [3] Industry News - Longzhong Information reported on July 15 that Heze Kexin Chemical Co., Ltd. has an 80,000 tons/year nickel-based high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit that was shut down for maintenance on May 24 and is scheduled to restart within the week. Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since the end of May and is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 15, commodity prices fell, leading to a pullback in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Recent maintenance of some butadiene units and limited ship cargo replenishment have supported butadiene prices due to low port inventory, but multiple domestic units are scheduled to restart in mid to late July, with Jilin Petrochemical's new unit expected to start operation around July 20. On the supply side, as butadiene prices decline, the profit margin for styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to recover, limiting the downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber operating rates. On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates. Overall, short-term cost stabilization is expected, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance, and BR prices are expected to fluctuate [5]