Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with stable spot prices and weakening futures, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][6]. Supply - July production continues to decline, with a total drop of 9,000 tons from May's peak, including a reduction of 50,000 tons in pig iron and a decrease of 40,000 tons in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The current pig iron production is at 2.398 million tons, while scrap steel consumption remains stable at 505,000 tons [3]. - The total production of the five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons to 8.72 million tons, with rebar production down by 40,000 tons to 2.167 million tons and hot-rolled coil production down by 50,000 tons to 3.232 million tons [3]. - The annual production growth rate is expected to remain at 3.3% due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remains stable, with a slight decrease in May compared to April, but June and July demand did not decline further, indicating better-than-expected seasonal demand [4]. - The apparent demand for the five major products decreased by 122,000 tons to 8.73 million tons [4]. - In July, hot-rolled coil production exceeded apparent demand, while rebar production was slightly below apparent demand [4]. Inventory - Recent production trends are closely following apparent demand, with inventory levels fluctuating accordingly [5]. - The inventory of the five major products decreased by 3,500 tons to 13.4 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 50,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 3.457 million tons [5]. - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with both supply and demand decreasing for rebar, while hot-rolled coil shows a slight inventory increase [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost side shows that coking coal production in Shanxi is gradually recovering, but recent restocking by traders has kept spot prices strong [2]. - Iron ore shipments in June have led to a slight increase in inventory, but the price of iron ore remains resilient due to expectations of a significant reduction in pig iron production [2]. - Profit margins from high to low are currently: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled [2]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is showing signs of improvement, with traders restocking and demand for spot steel improving slightly [6]. - The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July, which could influence market dynamics [6]. - Current price levels for rebar at 3,100 yuan and hot-rolled coil at 3,300 yuan are critical, with potential resistance levels at 3,220 yuan for rebar and 3,350 yuan for hot-rolled coil [6].
钢材:估值修复 或转入震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-16 02:17