鲍威尔去职风险加剧 投资者押注长期通胀上行及美债收益率曲线趋陡

Group 1 - The article discusses concerns regarding President Trump's calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, which is prompting investors to prepare for rising inflation risks [1][2] - Investors are pricing in potential future inflation pressures, as indicated by the rise in the 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven inflation rate to 2.476%, the highest in three months [1] - The White House is investigating potential cost overruns on the Federal Reserve's historic headquarters renovation, raising fears that Trump may seek to remove Powell under the guise of "for cause" dismissal [1] Group 2 - Concerns are growing that Trump's criticism of Powell could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility in financial asset prices [2] - Analysts warn that if the market perceives the Fed's independence is compromised, it could result in a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, causing long-term bond yields to rise relative to short-term yields [2] - The Fed's recent meeting minutes indicate that most policymakers remain cautious about inflation risks stemming from Trump's tariffs, with little support for a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 3 - Trump has stated that Powell's resignation "would be a good thing," despite the fact that the president cannot dismiss the Fed chair solely for policy disagreements [3] - In the current scenario, short-term yields may decrease due to faster rate cuts by the Fed, but long-term yields are likely to rise due to persistent inflation expectations and declining institutional trust [3]