黄金承压久攻不破高 回落退守55日均线

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to rising inflation data and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, which aligns with market expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, with the annual inflation rate rising from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June, leading to a slight adjustment in market expectations for interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures indicate a market expectation of approximately 44 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, down from an earlier 80% probability of a cut in September [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain prudent regarding rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is anticipated to provide further guidance to the market, with potential implications for gold prices depending on inflation signals [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold prices shows a bearish outlook, with the price struggling to break through resistance levels and facing downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar [4][5] - Gold prices are currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June decline, indicating a lack of upward momentum [4] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has lost its upward momentum, and the price is trading above this level but below the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, suggesting potential further declines [5]