美国6月通胀现关税隐忧，降息预期再度摇摆

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a rebound, with overall CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month, indicating the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3] - Analysts predict that inflation in the U.S. may face upward pressure in the second half of 2025, with limited expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July, and a maximum of two cuts possible within the year [1][4] Inflation Data Analysis - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.0%, while the "super core inflation" (excluding food, energy, and housing) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months [2][3] - Prices for imported goods, particularly in categories like clothing, furniture, and entertainment, have started to rise, reflecting the transmission of tariff costs to consumers [3][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI report, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a 97% probability of maintaining rates in July and a reduced 53% chance of a cut in September [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the Fed will remain cautious due to ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential for further increases in core goods inflation driven by tariffs [6] Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling effect under high interest rates, with expectations of a slowdown in the job market, which may influence the Fed's decisions on rate cuts later in the year [6] - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve, with discussions about the selection process for the next Fed chair, which could impact future monetary policy [6]