OPEC+增产预期加强 原油盘面中期偏空局面不变

Group 1 - As of July 16, crude oil futures experienced a downward trend, with the main contract priced at 516.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.09% [1] - According to the Japan Petroleum Association (PAJ), as of the week ending July 12, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 81,965 thousand liters to 12,215,588 thousand liters, while gasoline inventory decreased by 14,425 thousand liters to 1,629,222 thousand liters [2] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was reported at 85.3%, down from 89.8% the previous week [2] Group 2 - OPEC's monthly report indicated that Kuwait's crude oil production increased by 12,000 barrels per day in June to 243,600 barrels per day, while Libya's production decreased by 24,000 barrels per day to 128,000 barrels per day [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new round of fuel price adjustments, effective from July 15, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 130 yuan/ton and 125 yuan/ton, respectively [2] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures noted that expectations for OPEC+ production increases are strengthening, leading to a potential oversupply in the medium term, although short-term diesel tightness may support prices [3] Group 3 - According to industry insights, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.29 million barrels per day for 2025, with a global economic growth rate of 2.9% [3] - OPEC's total production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27,235,000 barrels per day [3] - The API reported unexpected crude oil inventory builds, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market, with overall supply concerns easing [3]