机构：欧美贸易谈判临近关键期，若谈不成或再度延期

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming trade negotiations between the EU and the US are at a critical juncture, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU if no agreement is reached by August 1 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiations - If the EU and the US fail to reach an agreement by August 1, the EU will implement the first round of countermeasures [1] - The European Commission is also preparing a second set of countermeasures in response to the trade talks [1] Economic Impact - A "severe scenario" predicts that a 20% tariff imposed by the US on all goods would lead to a reduction in the Eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026 compared to the baseline scenario [1] - If the US raises tariffs on EU goods to 30%, with corresponding EU retaliation, the Eurozone's GDP loss would be more pronounced, with a projected decrease of approximately 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026 compared to the baseline scenario [1] Outlook - Despite the challenges, there remains a possibility, albeit low, that negotiations could successfully conclude before the August 1 deadline [1] - The pressure from Europe, particularly from the market and US businesses, may lead to a further postponement of the "deadline" if no agreement is reached [1]