开源证券：6月社零增长放缓 建议战略布局头部白酒企业

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail sales growth rate in June 2025 has declined, primarily due to the timing of the 618 shopping festival, control of national subsidy policies in some regions, and a decrease in optional consumption and dining revenue [1] - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to May [1] - The restaurant and optional consumption sectors showed significant declines, with restaurant income growing by only 0.9% year-on-year and declining by 5.0 percentage points month-on-month [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to Q1 2025, driven by national subsidy policies [2] - The restaurant sector's income in Q2 2025 increased by 3.9% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was negatively impacted by a decline in June [2] - Essential food categories maintained high growth rates, with grain and oil food categories increasing by 12.4% year-on-year, while beverage and tobacco categories showed mixed results [2] Group 3 - The white wine industry is currently in a bottoming phase, affected by policy changes that limit consumption scenarios and a decline in product prices due to e-commerce subsidies [3] - Snack food companies are showing strong growth potential, driven by product and channel innovation, with the health-oriented konjac products gaining popularity [3] - Emerging channels such as bulk snack stores, Sam's Club, and Douyin e-commerce are contributing to the growth of the snack sector [3]