英国劳动力市场6月报告：就业率、失业率双升

Employment Market Overview - The employment rate for individuals aged 16-64 in the UK rose to 75.1% from February to April 2025, indicating a positive aspect of the job market [1] - However, the number of salaried employees decreased by 55,000 (0.2%) in March-April 2025 and by 115,000 (0.4%) from April 2024 to April 2025, suggesting a cautious hiring strategy among UK businesses [1][3] Public vs. Private Sector Employment - Public sector employment remained stable at 6.15 million in March 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while private sector employment growth faced different challenges [3] - This disparity provides insights for investors, indicating that stable public sector-related industries may offer defensive investment opportunities, while emerging sectors in the private sector also hold potential [3] Unemployment and Economic Inactivity - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 and above reached 4.6% from February to April 2025, showing an increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which raises concerns about economic growth [3] - The economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 decreased to 21.3%, but a significant portion is attributed to long-term illness and students, highlighting structural issues in the labor market [3] Wage Growth and Job Vacancies - Average wage growth for employees was notable, with regular wages increasing by 5.2% and total wages by 5.3% from February to April 2025, leading to improved consumer purchasing power [4] - Job vacancies fell to 736,000 from March to May 2025, marking a continuous decline over 35 quarters, indicating weakened labor demand and cautious investment in labor-intensive sectors [4] Consumer Sector Opportunities - With rising wages, the consumer sector is expected to experience growth, particularly in mid-to-high-end consumption areas such as premium retail, quality dining, and personalized travel services [5] - UK high-end fashion brands may benefit from increased disposable income, leading to higher sales, while specialty tourism projects and luxury hotels are also likely to gain from the consumption upgrade trend [5] Healthcare Sector Investment Potential - The high proportion of long-term illness in the economically inactive population underscores pressure on the UK healthcare system, presenting investment opportunities in medical device development and biopharmaceuticals focused on chronic disease treatment [6] Education and Training Sector Growth - The shortage of skilled labor in the UK is driving demand for education and training, particularly in vocational skills training and online education platforms, which are poised for significant growth [7] Human Resources Services Demand - Despite an overall decline in job vacancies, there remains a strong demand for high-end and specialized talent recruitment, suggesting that human resources service firms focusing on high-end talent acquisition may thrive [8]