债市日报：7月16日

Market Overview - The bond market weakened again on July 16, with most government bond futures closing down, while the overall fluctuation remained small [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated a neutral stance on the bond market during the financial statistics press conference, announcing an excess continuation of reverse repos, reflecting a strong demand for moderately loose monetary policy to support growth [1] Bond Futures - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 120.710, the 10-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 108.835, the 5-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 106.000, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.01% to 102.424 [2] - The yield on the 2-year "25附息国债06" decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.385%, while the 10-year "25附息国债11" increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.6595% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.79 basis points to 3.934% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.80 basis points to 4.481% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 1.579% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 3.404%, while the German 10-year bond yield fell by 1.7 basis points to 2.710% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2069% and 1.2654%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.44 and 2.29 [5] Liquidity Conditions - The PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 520.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan for the day [6] - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments collectively declined, with the overnight rate down by 6.9 basis points to 1.466% [6] Institutional Insights - Huazhong Securities noted that insufficient supply and strong demand continue to dominate the urban investment bond market, with net repayments in June amounting to 655 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 590 million yuan compared to the previous month [7] - CITIC Securities observed that government bonds continued to perform well, with credit issuance showing signs of recovery and social financing increasing year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]