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上半年经济数据出炉,哪些趋势值得关注?
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang·2025-07-16 08:50

Economic Performance - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] Consumer Trends - There is a growing demand for higher quality green and low-carbon products, as well as active consumption in entertainment, sports, and tourism [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.3% [2] - Service consumption expenditure accounted for approximately 45% of residents' disposable income, indicating an ongoing optimization of consumption structure [2] Trade and Supply Chain - China's economic momentum is strengthening, driven by industrial structure upgrades and the development of the digital economy, creating new opportunities [3] - China's export growth is supported by supply stability and resilience, indicating potential for continued stable growth in foreign trade [3] Financial Support - The cost of funds has been decreasing, with the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending dropping from 1.86% in January to 1.46% in June [4] - The weighted average interest rate for pledged repos fell from 2.16% in January to 1.5% in June, supporting the stability of the real economy [4] Real Estate Market - The decline in nominal mortgage rates has led to a recovery in real estate sales and prices, with a positive outlook for major cities [5] - Policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and activating demand in the real estate sector are being effectively implemented [5] Competition and Market Dynamics - It is crucial to distinguish between fair competition and "involutionary competition," as the latter distorts market price signals and leads to unfavorable outcomes [6] - The role of industry associations is emphasized in regulating unfair competition and enhancing effective demand [6] Economic Outlook - The long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, with confidence in achieving annual economic growth targets [7] - The second half of the year is expected to show stronger trade performance due to consumer promotions and significant holidays [7] - If GDP growth maintains around 5% in the second half, the annual growth rate could exceed 5%, slightly above the government's initial target [7]